Super User Sam Posted October 6, 2014 Super User Posted October 6, 2014 Don't ask me, but the professional weather guy says when there is heavy snow in Siberia this time of the year then the months of December, January, February and March in the USA will be cold with snow and ice storms. Hope they are wrong but with the snow buildup in Siberia at this time and for the next month we could be enjoying some days off of school and work. Anyone out there hear about this? Here is a Facebook article on the issue from WXrisk.com: NEW INFO WINTER IN CENTRAL/ EASTERN CONUS .... There is some new information to report this evening with regard to the buildup of snow cover in Siberia (north central and northeast Asia ). Now for those of you who are not "sick twisted weather freaks" or meteorologists you may be wondering WHY I am even talking about the snow cover in Siberia..?? As I pointed out in the video last week - THIS WEEK IN WEATHER -- it has been well established by scientific research / data that there is a distinct correlation between the buildup of snow cover in Siberia during the month of October and that tendency of the atmosphere to move into persistent blocking patterns during the winter months in North America. It is these blocking patterns which bring about potential for significant cold and snowstorms. (for you WX geeks out there of course we are talking about the relationship between the snow cover in Siberia and the PHASE of the Arctic Oscillation). There is a specific name for measuring the snow cover advancing in Siberia ...it is called the SAI. Without getting too technical.. during the month of the buildup of snow cover from 60° latitude southward towards 25N Latitude ... central China in October is a critical piece information which helps determine the tendency for blocking patterns (-AO). On another way of measuring the snow cover in Siberia is refer to as the SCE ( snow cover extent). The direct correlation between the SCE and the AO is not a strong as the SAI but it's still a pretty good indicator. As you can see from this map here I have superimposed the 60° N latitude line. And over the next nine days we see a significant development in snow cover expansion south of 60° north latitude. For those looking for cold and snow and winter storm patterns during the months of DJFM this is a positive development. See More 1 Quote
Super User Raul Posted October 6, 2014 Super User Posted October 6, 2014 Freezing cold and snowstorms in Siberia, what a surprise. 2 Quote
Super User F14A-B Posted October 6, 2014 Super User Posted October 6, 2014 Based on a cook down of persimmons this past weekend the seeds are indicating a most severe winter in the general Midwest ... It's been observed to be quite accurate.. I don't buy it.. But my wife swears by it.. I do believe, based on the past, rough winters seem to run in cycles of 2 & 3 years in South Ind. We shall soon know! Lol... Quote
Josh Smith Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Based on a cook down of persimmons this past weekend the seeds are indicating a most severe winter in the general Midwest ... It's been observed to be quite accurate.. I don't buy it.. But my wife swears by it.. I do believe, based on the past, rough winters seem to run in cycles of 2 & 3 years in South Ind. We shall soon know! Lol... When I was down in Southern Indiana from about '98 to about '02, I seem to remember ice storms more than anything. Josh Quote
Super User flyfisher Posted October 7, 2014 Super User Posted October 7, 2014 You guys can make fun all you want but the guy at WxRisk is pretty much dead on in his forecasts.....at least last winter he was. 1 Quote
Super User ww2farmer Posted October 7, 2014 Super User Posted October 7, 2014 Don't ask me, but the professional weather guy says when there is heavy snow in Siberia this time of the year then the months of December, January, February and March in the USA will be cold with snow and ice storms. Wow, he's going out on a limb there saying winter will be cold and snowy. 1 Quote
Super User Catch and Grease Posted October 7, 2014 Super User Posted October 7, 2014 What is considered heavy snow in Siberia, Is it when you have to use your 2nd story window as a front door, or when you have to put a ladder going up your chimney? 1 Quote
Super User Raul Posted October 7, 2014 Super User Posted October 7, 2014 You guys can make fun all you want but the guy at WxRisk is pretty much dead on in his forecasts.....at least last winter he was. Freezing cold and heavy snow in Siberia, well I ain´t the weather forecast dude but if I forecast freezing cold and heavy snow in Siberia I bet I´m going to be pretty much dead on. Quote
Super User Montanaro Posted October 8, 2014 Super User Posted October 8, 2014 I'll have my African friend throw some chicken bones tomorrow and I'll get back to yall. 3 Quote
Josh Smith Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 I'll have my African friend throw some chicken bones tomorrow and I'll get back to yall. The chicken bone method has pretty much been disproved. Josh Quote
Super User Sam Posted October 8, 2014 Author Super User Posted October 8, 2014 You guys are funny. Great replies. And Fly, these guys don't know Dave and his forecasts. But they will learn real fast as we approach 2014. Get those snow tires and chains out boys, for you guys are headed for some rough winter weather. Quote
Super User flyfisher Posted October 8, 2014 Super User Posted October 8, 2014 I had a buddy tell me about him a few years ago and have been a loyal follower on Facebook every since....last year it was crazy how good he was as compared to the other local weather guys. And bring on the winter weather, i love the snow Quote
BassResource.com Advertiser FD. Posted October 13, 2014 BassResource.com Advertiser Posted October 13, 2014 91 degrees today. Please send me some snow! 1 Quote
Super User Sam Posted October 14, 2014 Author Super User Posted October 14, 2014 Latest and greatest update on snow in Siberia from Dave Tolis at wxrisk.com: October 13 MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN WINTER FORECAST 2014-15 SNOW BUILD IN SIBERIA going like gangbusters off the chart...( as I have been saying for 2 weeks) ... Dr Judah Cohen the brillant director of seasonal forecasting who " discovered" the connection between OCTOBER Snow cover in Siberia and Winter weather patterns in North America / Europe ( aka the -AO / +AO) has said that he is very impressed by ... extreme rapid build up of snow in the SIBERIA in 2014.... and thinks it will be a cold/ snowy winter in the eastern half of the US / Europe Quote
Super User Sam Posted October 16, 2014 Author Super User Posted October 16, 2014 For they guys who have read this post and thought it was funny to read Dave's statement that there is a heavy snow in Siberia - meaning that our winter in the eastern half of the USA is going to be a killer - here is Dave's follow up about the three weather forecasts from our government agencies that the TV and radio weather people will have to follow even though all signs point to a harsh winter ahead for us. NOAA/ CPC/ NWS WINTER FORECAST IS OUT... I have mixed feelings on this. First of all the CPC winter forecast is AWFUL. No let me correct that ... it sucks Moose Balls. If one goes back over the last 15 years there is not a single time that CPC has had any portion of the NE US in Below Normal temps. Not once. In the severe winter of 2009-10 which was very cold over the Midwest and last year CPC only showed " equal chances " SECOND their forecas...it is not a forecast at all. All CPC has done is reissued its standard boilerplate El Nino crap.... all El Nino Events bring mild winter to the central and northern third of the US. It is sooooo 1980s / 1990s crap THIRD as in the case with those wretched smart phone 5 ..10.. and 14 weather apps that are always wrong ...part of me LOVES this CPC forecast... Like last year this one will making me look goooood. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html Enjoy! Quote
Super User J Francho Posted October 16, 2014 Super User Posted October 16, 2014 Here is a Facebook article You lost me at "Facbook Article"... 4 Quote
ColdSVT Posted October 17, 2014 Posted October 17, 2014 Good cuz i wanna ride my snowmobile this year! Quote
Super User Sam Posted October 17, 2014 Author Super User Posted October 17, 2014 You lost me at "Facbook Article"... J, Dave Toleris uses Facebook to communicate with the public. You can subscribe to his blog or pay him to provide private forecasts if you are in the agriculture business or an industry that is affected by the weather. As stated above, Dave is usually 100% on target and he educates the public on the who, what, where and why we have certain weather events and patterns. The heavy Siberian snow was the first time I have ever heard of such an event and its impact on the eastern half of the US. It will be interesting to note if Dave or the National Weather Service are correct with their winter weather predictions. In Richmond, Virginia we are being bombarded by large acorns which is usually a sign of a hard winter approaching. And I hate snow!!! Quote
Super User J Francho Posted October 17, 2014 Super User Posted October 17, 2014 What does Farmer's Almanac say? I was just poking fun at FB. So much stuff up there - what's real, and what's fake? What your man describes is every winter here. Though, it doesn't usually start until late December. The lake holds a ton of heat, and while it causes lake effect snow, it can insulate us in early winter. Quote
Super User Raul Posted October 17, 2014 Super User Posted October 17, 2014 What your man describes is every winter here. . Just like freezing temperatures and heavy snowstorms in Siberia ? what a surprise. If he forecasted freezing temperatures and heavy snowstorms in Cancún and it actually happened then I would be amazed, but in Siberia ? nah, I don´t think I would be so amazed. Quote
Super User J Francho Posted October 17, 2014 Super User Posted October 17, 2014 He's linking trends in Siberian weather to forecasting weather in the western hemisphere. There are many models predicting a long, cold winter for the midwest. Longer and colder than average. Quote
Super User Sam Posted October 17, 2014 Author Super User Posted October 17, 2014 The philosophy behind the position is not his. It comes from another scientist that has studied the Siberian snow affect. Let's see what happens. I know you like ice fishing with Little J in New York in the winter!!!!!! For now let's all enjoy as much fall fishing as we can get in before the colder weather descends on us. Quote
Super User flyfisher Posted November 13, 2014 Super User Posted November 13, 2014 You notice there are quite a few meteorologists coming out now with a winter forecast hat is supposed to be colder and snowier than normal? I miss the snow and i hope we get a lot, much to the chagrin of the Louisiana transplant lol Quote
Super User roadwarrior Posted November 17, 2014 Super User Posted November 17, 2014 Record lows throughout much of the Mid South tonight. In Memphis we are loking at teens. Quote
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